A Wall Street Journal survey conducted in the early 2000’s of U.S. economists that has been conducted since 1982 has shown that the economic experts surveyed have been correct about their future predictions of the economy at a rate less favorable than an outcome that would be produced by random guessing – 22%. Yet these are the surveys on which the retail investor bases his or her investment decisions. A 1995 London Financial Times study revealed that “Consensus economic forecasts failed to predict any of the most important developments in the economy over the last seven years.”


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