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  • Barron’s magazine features another classic case of how hard it is to pick winners and losers. Twice a year, the magazine gathers together some of the country’s leading money managers for the Big Money poll, and each investor picks his or her two favorite, and two least favorites stocks. In Nov. of 98 the picked stocks went up by 46% over 12 months – very, very impressive, unless you note that the stocks they liked the least went up by 105% during the same time. In many years, as you would expect, the picked stocks do much better than the pans, but, not always. In Oct. of 2001 the picks lost 38%, and the pans actually rose in value by 2.65%.

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harry Dent published a book in 1998, The Roaring 2000s:Building the Wealth and Lifestyle you desire in the greatest boom in history." It was a NYTime bestseller. It said "there will be only a modest apprecation of home values, despite a booming economy." The boom he was writing about was supposed to be in the stock market. In 05, at the very end of the boom, David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, published: "Are you missing the real estate boom? Why home values and other real estate investments will climb through the end of the decade - and how to profit from them." His book, "The Rules for Growing Rich: Making Money in the New Information Economy was published in June 2000, just after the dot.com bubble, and said little about the housing market.

—predicting markets
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