“Hedgehogs are type A personalities who believe in Big Ideas— in governing principles about the world that behave as though they were physical laws and undergird virtually every interaction in society. Think Karl Marx and class struggle, or Sigmund Freud and the unconscious. Or Malcolm Gladwell and the “tipping point.†Foxes, on the other hand, are scrappy creatures who believe in a plethora of little ideas and in taking a multitude of approaches toward a problem. They tend to be more tolerant of nuance, uncertainty, complexity, and dissenting opinion. FIGURE 2-2: ATTITUDES OF FOXES AND HEDGEHOGS How Foxes Think How Hedgehogs Think Multidisciplinary: Incorporate ideas from different disciplines and regardless of their origin on the political spectrum. Specialized: Often have spent the bulk from different disciplines and regardless of their origin on the political spectrum. Specialized: Often have spent the bulk of their careers on one or two great problems. May view the opinions of “outsiders†skeptically. Adaptable: Find a new approach— or pursue multiple approaches at the same time— if they aren’t sure the original one is working. Stalwart: Stick to the same “all-in†approach— new data is used to refine the original model. Self-critical: Sometimes willing (if rarely happy) to acknowledge mistakes in their predictions and accept the blame for them. Stubborn: Mistakes are blamed on bad luck or on idiosyncratic circumstances— a good model had a bad day. Tolerant of complexity: See the universe as complicated, perhaps to the point of many fundamental problems being irresolvable or inherently unpredictable. Order-seeking: Expect that the world will be found to abide complicated, perhaps to the point of many fundamental problems being irresolvable or inherently unpredictable. Order-seeking: Expect that the world will be found to abide by relatively simple governing relationships once the signal is identified through the noise. Cautious: Express their predictions in probabilistic terms and qualify their opinions. Confident: Rarely hedge their predictions and are reluctant to change them. Empirical: Rely more on observation than theory. Ideological: Expect that solutions to many day-to-day problems are manifestations of some grander theory or struggle. Foxes are better forecasters. Hedgehogs are weaker forecasters. Silver, Nate. The Signal and the Noise (pp. 54-55). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition. Silver, Nate. The Signal and the Noise (p. 54). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition. Silver, Nate. The Signal and the Noise (p. 54). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition. Silver, Nate. The Signal and the Noise (pp. 53-54). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition. ”
